Prof. John Andrews – Next Generation Prediction Methodologies and Tools for Engineering Risk Assessment (April 7, 2021)

Risk Assessments performed on systems across many industrial sectors employ techniques such as Fault Tree Analysis and Event tree analysis which have their foundations back in the 1960/1970s. Since that time technology has advanced and system designs, their operating practice and maintenance strategies are now significantly different to those of the 1970s. Some of the restrictive assumptions such as: constant failure and repair rates for components, component failures being independent and the limited account of maintenance and renewal options in the component failure models employed, reduce the effectiveness of these methodologies to represent modern day systems. In addition, research into the risk prediction techniques has made considerable advances in their capabilities since the 1970s but these advances tend to have addressed each deficiency in isolation.